Here are our key takeaways from our recent roadshow with MHP's CEO Jörg Frehse:
It was once again reiterated, that the current market situation with many peers from the economy segment struggling is offering plenty of opportunities for MHP to take over and reposition hotels in top locations into the premium segment. Thanks to its strong operational expertise, particularly in F&B design, as well as market positioning, MHP regularly outperforms competitors in major KPIs like RevPar or profitability, thus creating an attractive platform for ongoing portfolio expansion. We hence regard it as sensible to use the current window of opportunity and even expand the portfolio at a slightly higher pace than seen before.
Focus remains on the three pillars. While the CEO made it clear that the white-label hotel operation business remains the center of management's strategy, it also aims to expand the MOOONS brand. While in general the company is looking for at least € 10m annual hotel sales, MOOONS hotels could also be smaller given the superior margin profile compared to franchising. On top of this, co-investments shall remain part of the growth story. Here, we learned that the initial investment typically amortizes after 2-3 years on the basis of the management fees MHP receives for the hotel operation. Despite the fact that co-investments partly dilute the asset-light focus of MHP, we hence still regard this focus as sensible, as it also offers opportunities that otherwise would not occur.
Strong current trading. During the call, the CEO made a confident impression regarding the current business performance, thus supporting the strong Q1 Hotel performance and the recently reiterated FY guidance of € 180m sales (eNuW: € 185m) and € 15m EBITDA (eNuW: € 15.3m/ € 10.3m adj. EBITDA excl. key-money payments), implying 15% yoy growth and an 8.3% EBITDA margin. This appears reasonable in our view and should be driven by the initial FY effect of the Koenigshof in Munich as well as the anticipated opening of the Conrad Hamburg in Q3.
We maintain our high conviction in the stock, which continues to look cheap on both EV/ adj. EBITDA as well as FCFY and thus reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchanged PT of € 3.00 based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000A3E5C24
