VEON - Catalysts from Kyivstar IPO and buyback

VEON's financial performance at the Q125 stage was strong, and importantly the Ukrainian business that is to be listed in the coming months was solid. Investor attention is now on the Kyivstar IPO, and we are comforted to see that it is progressing as planned. In this note we introduce an estimate of $2.4bn for the equity value of Kyivstar, which supports the $2.2bn valuation in the IPO documents provided by VEON. We believe the Kyivstar IPO could be a strong positive catalyst for VEON shares, implying a rump (business excluding Kyivstar) valuation of just $1.7bn at VEON's current share price. The 16 June announcement that VEON will commence a $35m buyback should provide additional support to the stock. We have revised our 2025 adjusted EPS estimate to $5.16 and 2026 to $6.32, and our equity valuation remains largely unchanged at $60.1 per share ($60.4 previously). Our adjusted EPS now reflects a more conservative methodology, including dilution from options.

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