Nabaltec - Subdued H125 despite strong structural growth

Nabaltec recorded subdued results in H125, due to an increasingly challenging market environment, with both revenue and EBIT decreasing 1.7% and 18.5% y-o-y, respectively, to €106.5m and €8.9m. Despite this, EBIT in Q225 rose 14.6% versus Q125, while revenue declined 5.3%. Management adjusted its FY25 guidance from 3-5% revenue growth to a decrease of up to 2%. This updated revenue guidance mirrors that of the chemical industry so far in 2025. However, Nabaltec reiterated its profit guidance for FY25, anticipating an EBIT margin of 7-9%, achieving 8.4% at H125 (FY24: 9.9%). We have, therefore, adjusted our FY25 estimates and valuation, while introducing FY26 estimates, to reflect both management's guidance and the current environment in which Nabaltec operates. Our updated valuation for Nabaltec is €26.3 per share (down from €29.9/share), representing upside of around 99% to the current share price.

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