Topic: Last week, TPG released a solid set of H1 results, clearly confirming the growth path and showing the profitability expansions. In detail:
H1 sales are up 48% yoy to € 343m (Q2: +47% yoy), driven by recent M&A (20% yoy inorganic growth), but more importantly carried by a strong organic development, with sales being up organically by an impressive 28% yoy. This showcases the success of TPG's unique platform business model, connecting a growing number of partners (15,781, up 26% yoy) and thus product offering, to a growing number of customers (6.2m, up 29% yoy) which clearly serves a key differentiator against the classical e-commerce sector. Sales of the largest segment Consumer Goods increased by 72% to € 217m (63% of sales), followed by growth across all remaining segments between 17% and 22% yoy.
Adj. EBITDA saw an even better development in H1, jumping by 89% yoy to € 33m (9.7% margin, up 2.1pp yoy). This should stem from a mix of (1) margin accretive past acquisitions (visible in a stronger gross margin, up 5.2pp yoy) and (2) an improving fixed cost coverage following strong organic sales growth (e.g. visible in a personnel cost ratio decline by 0.4pp yoy).
TPG raised its guidance and 2026 mid-term targets for the 2nd time (see bottom right), following 7 acquisitions this year. Especially the move into Optics & Hearing (and the subsequent formation of a new segment as of Q3'25) is seen as an extremely margin accretive addition, given the 25% EBITDA margin of the acquired companies, which is in line with peers like Fielmann. In light of this, we regard the guidance as well in reach.
Moreover, TPG is currently in advanced negotiations to acquire three B2B pharmaceutical companies. It's holdings like ApoNow and Doc.Green (online platform for offline pharmacies) have not only developed well in the last years, but also have an important reach into more than 41k pharmacies, but also into 350 pharmaceutical producers. Further acquisitions in this field could hence serve as vertical and horizontal integration into TPG's existing pharma business. The to-be-acquired companies together have a low triple-digit € m sales with 4-6% EBITDA margins. Additionally, TPG is currently looking into a B2B furniture platform as well as a B2B bike platform.
Financing for all 50.1% acquisitions should stem from FCFs (€ 10m in H1'25), but also by taking on further debt by tapping the existing 24/28 bond, but without endangering over leveraging (Net Debt / LTM adj. EBITDA of 2.0x per H1, flat yoy).
Non-operatively, TPG's AGM agreed to the change in legal structure from AG to SE & Co. KGaA, making TPG more resilient against takeovers and ensure a long-term framework with CEO Benner as an anchor shareholder.
All in all, TPG remains in full swing and the shares remain undervalued, in our view, trading at only 4.9x FY'25e PE (4.3x FY'26e) for a quickly growing e-commerce platform. We raise our estimates as we include most recent closings in our models. Consequently, our DCF-based PT increases to € 19.00 (old: € 18.00).
ISIN: DE000A2QEFA1
