Yesterday, MHP Hotel AG released good H1 results, which came in broadly in line with our estimates (preview). In detail:
H1'25 sales increased by 12.6% to € 79.3m, which is in line with our estimate of € 79m. As outlined in our preview, this was predominantly driven by strong logis sales of € 60.1m (+14% yoy), which was supported by a higher ADR of € 222 (+8% yoy) despite a strong comparable base (2024 EURO). Moreover, the Koenigshof in Munich, which opened last year, contributed € 9m of sales growth. F&B sales also increased 11% yoy to € 16.3m, while the other segment posted a modest 2.4% increase to € 3.0m.
Against this backdrop, H1 EBITDA came in at € 2.3m (eNuW: € 2.1m), implying a 2.9% margin. This is the first time MHP reported positive EBITDA in the seasonally weaker H1 since the listing in 2021. In our view, this was clearly built on operating leverage as well as efficiency gains.
Outlook confirmed. Based on this, management confirmed the FY25 guidance of € 180m sales (eNuW: € 185m, eCons: € 182m) and € 15m EBITDA (eNuW: € 15.3m; eCons: € 15.1m/ eNuW: € 103m adj. EBITDA excl. key-money payments). In our view, this is well within reach, considering the historically stronger H2, the initial impact from the Conrad in Hamburg (283 additional rooms, >10% increase on group level) as well as the ramp-up of the Koenigshof. Based on the H1 results, the guidance implies 11.1% yoy H2 sales growth and an EBITDA margin of 12.6% (vs 13.1% in H2'24), which again is reasonable in our view.
Portfolio expansion pending. During the call, management expressed its confidence in being able to announce at lease one addition to the portfolio during the remainder of the year. Importantly, following the successful capital increase in July (€ 4.5m gross proceeds), MHP should be equipped with a "war-chest" exceeding € 10m while timing could hardly be better given the continued struggle of peers, especially in the economy segment. Keep in mind that we do not model any portfolio additions beyond the Stuttgart opening in FY28. As such, any additional portfolio expansion would represent upside to our current estimates.
As the release fully confirms our view on the case and valuation metrics remain attractive, we confirm BUY with an unchanged PT of € 3.00 based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000A3E5C24
