BRUSSELS/FRANKFURT/PARIS (dpa-AFX) - Global oil stocks are building fast amid slower demand growth and rising supply, the International Energy Agency has said in its latest Oil Market Report.
Global oil demand rose by 750 kb/d yeat-on-year in the third quarter of this year, as petrochemical feedstocks led a rebound from 2Q25's tariff-afflicted 420 kb/d pace. Still, oil use will remain subdued over the remainder of 2025 and in 2026, resulting in annual gains forecast at around 700 kb/d in both years, according to IEA. This is well below historical trend, as a harsher macro climate and transport electrification make for a sharp deceleration in oil consumption growth.
Total global oil supply rose by 760 kb/d month-on-month, to 108 mb/d in September, as OPEC+ production surged by 1 mb/d led by the Middle East. World oil supply is on track to rise by 3 mb/d to 106.1 mb/d this year and 2.4 mb/d next year. Non-OPEC+ adds 1.6 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina. OPEC+ adds 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d next year based on the current production agreement.
The oil market has been in surplus since the start of the year, but stock builds have so far been concentrated in crude in China and gas liquids in the United States. By September, however, a surge in Middle East production, coinciding with seasonally lower regional crude demand, boosted exports to two and a half-year highs. This, combined with robust flows from the Americas, swelled oil on water in September by a massive 102 mb, the largest increase since the Covid-19 pandemic. Brent crude oil futures rose by an average $0.30/bbl to $67.60/bbl m-o-m in September. But by early October, the wave of tankers at sea and the announcement of new trade measures pushed prices down by $4/bbl to $64/bbl.
Global oil supply in September was up by a massive 5.6 mb/d compared with a year ago. OPEC+ accounted for 3.1 mb/d of the increase. Based on their latest agreement, OPEC+ is now on track to lift output by 1.4 mb/d on average this year and by a further 1.2 mb/d in 2026. Non-OPEC+ producers are set to add 1.6 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, over the same timeframe. The report cautions that risks to the forecast remain, with sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran compounding geopolitical concerns. Persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have cut Russian crude processing by an estimated 500 kb/d, resulting in domestic fuel shortages and lower product exports. The drop in Russian middle distillate exports reverberated globally as regular buyers scrambled to secure alternative supplies, bidding up diesel and jet fuel cracks in the process. Light sweet crude refining margins hit two-year highs in Europe and 18-month highs on the US Gulf Coast and in Singapore in September.
Despite recent sluggish growth, the petrochemical sector will reassume its position in the driving seat of oil demand growth, as subpar economic conditions, increasing vehicle efficiencies and strong EV sales make for strong headwinds for road transport fuels, the report says.
Amid the backdrop of slower demand growth and a rapid increase in crude supplies, global oil balances have seen a 1.9 mb/d surplus since the start of the year, yet crude prices have fluctuated around $70/bbl so far in 2025. That range has been kept in check in part because NGLs dominated the overhang from April through August. Indeed, outside of China, the crude market tightened over the same period.
Looking ahead, as the significant volumes of crude oil on water move onshore to major oil hubs, crude stocks look set to surge while NGLs start to drop, the report says. However, the loss of Russian product supplies, upcoming EU restrictions on product imports derived from Russian feedstocks, and recent refinery capacity closures may keep the product markets tighter than the overall balance would suggest.
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