Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Cantourage Group SE
Q3 prelims: Growth remains strong // int. expansion ongoing Cantourage's Q3 sales surged 52% to € 20m but regulatory uncertainties and price pressures weigh on margins. Maintain BUY with a €10.50 price target. Cantourage reported strong Q3 sales of € 20m, up 52% yoy (9m sales of € 74.9m, +148% yoy) thanks to a strong international momentum and continued demand in its home-turf Germany. Yet, this is a sequential slow down compared to the previous quarter with € 27.9m due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding regulatory changes in Germany and resulting cautious demand and somewhat lower pricing as several players notably decrease prices to clear inventories (cannabis flowers are perishable). EBITDA during the first nine months stood at € 3.9m (+86% yoy), implying a margin of 5.2%, partially underpinning the company's strong operating performance and high scalability of the business model but at the same time temporarily burdened by the German market's current price pressure amid an industry wide inventory wind down. FY25 expectations partially reachable. So far, the company has not issued a concrete guidance for this financial year. While market expectations for FY sales of € 87m (eNuW: € 88.6m) seem sensible, estimates for EBITDA of € 7m (eNuW old: € 6.5m) should be somewhat to high; eNuW new: € 4.9m. Regulatory uncertainties prevail. The Federal Ministry of Health is evaluating measures that could restrict telemedicine-based cannabis prescriptions and curb mail-order distribution. While the direct impact would be limited (telecan is not a meaningful revenue driver), these proposals, if enacted, could constrain patient access and affect market dynamics. Cannabis-focused pharmacies are therefore showing more cautious ordering patterns. It remains unclear, to what extent access will be restricted. However, we see Cantourage as well positioned to weather those changes; adapting the product offering, increasing cooperations with offline pharmacies and entering additional markets to decrease the dependency on Germany. European expansion ongoing. Next to Germany, Cantourage has already established itself as a significant player in the UK. In September, the company announced that it already supplied 1.5 tons of medical cannabis to the UK market (eNuW: low double-digit € m of sales). In Poland, Cantourage is further increasing its presence and is also preparing to enter further European markets such as Spain and Italy. Ultimately, the company is decreasing its dependency on the German market and adding additional growth pillars to the story. Current share price development remains de-coupled from the company's operational developments. Trading at 0.5x EV/sales FY25e despite expected growth of >70% seems unjustified. We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 10.50 PT based on DCF. You can download the research here: CantourageGroupSEQ3preview For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||||
2223196 04.11.2025 CET/CEST
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