Cantourage reported strong Q3 sales of € 20m, up 52% yoy (9m sales of € 74.9m, +148% yoy) thanks to a strong international momentum and continued demand in its home-turf Germany. Yet, this is a sequential slow down compared to the previous quarter with € 27.9m due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding regulatory changes in Germany and resulting cautious demand and somewhat lower pricing as several players notably decrease prices to clear inventories (cannabis flowers are perishable).
EBITDA during the first nine months stood at € 3.9m (+86% yoy), implying a margin of 5.2%, partially underpinning the company's strong operating performance and high scalability of the business model but at the same time temporarily burdened by the German market's current price pressure amid an industry wide inventory wind down.
FY25 expectations partially reachable. So far, the company has not issued a concrete guidance for this financial year. While market expectations for FY sales of € 87m (eNuW: € 88.6m) seem sensible, estimates for EBITDA of € 7m (eNuW old: € 6.5m) should be somewhat to high; eNuW new: € 4.9m.
Regulatory uncertainties prevail. The Federal Ministry of Health is evaluating measures that could restrict telemedicine-based cannabis prescriptions and curb mail-order distribution. While the direct impact would be limited (telecan is not a meaningful revenue driver), these proposals, if enacted, could constrain patient access and affect market dynamics. Cannabis-focused pharmacies are therefore showing more cautious ordering patterns. It remains unclear, to what extent access will be restricted. However, we see Cantourage as well positioned to weather those changes; adapting the product offering, increasing cooperations with offline pharmacies and entering additional markets to decrease the dependency on Germany.
European expansion ongoing. Next to Germany, Cantourage has already established itself as a significant player in the UK. In September, the company announced that it already supplied 1.5 tons of medical cannabis to the UK market (eNuW: low double-digit € m of sales). In Poland, Cantourage is further increasing its presence and is also preparing to enter further European markets such as Spain and Italy. Ultimately, the company is decreasing its dependency on the German market and adding additional growth pillars to the story.
Current share price development remains de-coupled from the company's operational developments. Trading at 0.5x EV/sales FY25e despite expected growth of >70% seems unjustified. We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 10.50 PT based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000A3DSV01