Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Global Fashion Group S.A.
Last Friday, GFG posted its Q3 results, with muted NMV and sales, but positive adj. EBITDA. In detail: FX disappointment in LATAM and ANZ, SEA in line. As expected, GFG's LTM active customers decreased by 7.2% yoy to 7.4m, largely reflecting the divestment of the Chile business (~0.4m customers). Excluding this effect, underlying trends point to fruitful efforts in reversing customer decline in LATAM and ANZ. Consequently, orders declined by 2% yoy (eNuW: -4%). Nevertheless, the improvement was partially offset by a lower AOV, which decreased by 5% yoy to € 61, due to FX effects (+1% yoy in cc). As a result, group NMV decreased by 10% to € 239m (flat yoy in cc). Regionally, LATAM decreased by 11% yoy (eNuW: +1% yoy) to € 69m NMV, driven by lower active customers (3.5m; -10% yoy), but held back by FX headwinds (+3.8% yoy in cc). ANZ mirrored the trend by decreasing 3.5% yoy (eNuW: 2% yoy) to reach € 120m NMV mainly due to FX headwinds, yet cushioned by a higher customer base (2m; +4.7% yoy). The decline was more pronounced in the SEA region, where NMV decreased 20% yoy to € 49m, explained by a declined customer base (1.9m; -13.3% yoy) and negative FX effects in a similar magnitude as in LATAM. Sales decrease as Marketplace reaches new high. The retail business's share of group NMV decreased by 1pp yoy to 61%, which directly increased Marketplace share by 1pp, to 39%. As the Marketplace business works on a take-rate basis, the sales to NMV ratio decreased accordingly by 1.8pp to 67.8%, reflecting the sales impact of this on the overall mix. As a result, group sales arrived at € 157m (-10% yoy vs. -2% yoy in cc; eNuW: € 164m). Regionally, LATAM decreased by 11% yoy to € 43m. In ANZ, sales fell 6% yoy to € 82m mainly due to FX headwinds, while SEA sales decreased by 15% to land at € 34m, broadly in line with regional NMV developments and marketplace share gains. Gross margin drivers intact. In Q3, GFG was able to increase its gross margin by 1.5pp yoy to reach 46.1% with a combination of less provided discounts (due to an improved inventory age), better terms negotiated with brands, as well as the Marketplace share gain. Regionally, gross margin improved across all regions yoy (LATAM: +1.1pp; ANZ: +1.5pp; SEA: +2.1pp), due to a higher marketplace share gain in each region. Positive adj. EBITDA surprise, FY'25 guidance at upper end. Fueled by gross margin gains and a combination of cost control measures (i.e. fulfillment efficiencies, a reduced headcount by 10% yoy, and improvements in G&A contracts), GFG posted a positive adj. EBITDA (0.6% margin; +4.4pp yoy) of € 1m for a second time this year (LTM: € 2.4m), which proves that GFG is on the right path to adj. EBITDA breakeven for FY'25. Consequently, management narrowed its FY'25 guidance from adj. EBITDA breakeven to positive single-digit million. Against this backdrop, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment case due to the already visible improvements in gross and adj. EBITDA margins, coupled with positive FCFs in the broader future (eNuW: FY'27e). Given that GFG is priced for insolvency, as it trades at a negative EV, the re-rating potential appears attractive, in our view. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our PT to € 0.90 based on DCF. You can download the research here: globalfashiongroupsa20251112previewreviewen0b49e For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||||
2228142 12.11.2025 CET/CEST
© 2025 EQS Group
