WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Crude oil edged higher on Thursday despite an IEA report raising oversupply concerns as the U.S. government reopening after an historic shutdown has renewed confidence in the economy and increased consumption and energy demand.
Of note, yesterday crude oil prices went for a freefall, trading at $58.40 per barrel, down by 4.31%.
WTI Crude Oil for December delivery was last seen trading up by $0.22 (or 0.38%) at $58.71 per barrel.
In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expects crude oil prices to fall through the end of 2025 and to average $55 per barrel in 2026 due to a rise in global inventories. It further states that global crude oil inventories will rise to 2.93 billion barrels in the fourth quarter and inventories will reach 3.18 billion barrels by the final quarter of next year.
According to the EIA, for the week ending November 7, crude oil inventories in the U.S. rose by 6.413 million barrels.
For the same period, gasoline inventories fell by 945,000 barrels, while distillate inventories dipped by 637,000 barrels.
In the U.S., the Senate-passed short-term funding bill to run the government was approved by the House yesterday and later signed by U.S. President Donald Trump, thereby ending the longest shutdown in the history of U.S., which started on October 1.
For traders, the reopening of the government has boosted expectations of increased oil and energy consumption and supported oil prices on the upside.
With weekly losses exceeding 1%, gains over the past month have decreased to 0.9%. Prices are currently almost 3% below the levels three years ago.
Early this week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast markets to be broadly balanced and projected that oil demand would rise by 1.3 million bpd in 2025 and by 1.38 million bpd in 2026. The group now estimates supply exceeding demand by 500,000 barrels a day in the third quarter of 2025.
After its November 2 meeting, the OPEC+ alliance announced their decision to increase monthly production by 137,000 bpd in December but plans to pause further hikes throughout the first quarter of 2026.
The International Energy Agency's latest revised report projected consumption to climb to 105 million bpd by 2035. The agency's outlook also forecast an oversupply of oil, anticipating a surplus of over 4 million bpd by 2026. The IEA has revised up slightly its 2025 demand growth estimate, to 790,000 bpd from 700,000 bpd.
Sanctions by the U.S. and the west on Russia's oil majors, Rosneft and Lukoil, have not stopped Russia from continuing its attacks on Ukraine, although Russia has now expressed willingness to resume negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey. China, India, and Turkey, major oil purchasers from Russia are turning to sellers from the Middle East and elsewhere.
Supply side concerns for Russian oil persist.
Despite oil prices trading about $15 per barrel below their 52-week highs, Big Oil firms - Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies have collectively earned over $21 billion in the third quarter of 2025.
Crude oil being a dollar-denominated commodity, traders are now focused on the upcoming economic releases ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting next month to decide on interest rates, which could impact the U.S. dollar value.
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