WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Global oil demand is set to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025 amid an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook, according to The International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report. These brighter prospects extend to IEA's 2026 forecast, which upgrades by 90 kb/d, to 860 kb/d y-o-y.
Gasoil and jet/kerosene account for half of this year's gains, with fuel oil losing ground to natural gas and solar in power generation. In 2026 petrochemical feedstocks will dominate growth, with their share rising to more than 60% from 40 percent in 2025, the report says.
Global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending the decline from September's record of 109 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d. OPEC+ accounted for more than three-quarters of the total decrease, led by sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. Russian oil exports declined by 420 kb/d in November, which combined with weaker prices, slashed revenues to $11 billion, $3.6 billion below a year ago. Global oil supply growth has been cut by 100 kb/d to 3 mb/d for 2025 and by 20 kb/d for 2026 to 2.4 mb/d, to 106.2 mb/d and 108.6 mb/d, respectively.
After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in first quarter of 2026 will provide fresh challenges. The stark contrast between surging crude supplies and unexpectedly tight product markets has pushed refinery margins back to levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Runs forecasts for 2026 have been increased to 84.4 mb/d, with growth raised to 750 kb/d.
Global observed inventories rose to four-year highs in October, at 8 030 mb. Stock builds averaged 1.2 mb/d during the first ten months of the year.
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