DBAG released solid FY25 figures, meeting the midpoint of its NAV/share guidance but the higher end of EBITA Fund Investment Services guidance. Deal flow in the short- to mid-term is likely to remain high thanks to increased interest in "old school" industries.
NAV/share came in at € 36.37 (eNuW: € 36.00), up 1.6% yoy. Including the amount returned to shareholders (dividend and buyback), the NAV/share would have increased 7.4% to € 38.44 thanks to the duagon exit and several valuation uplifts. FY26 guidance: NAV/share of €36-40 (eNuW: € 38.49), depending on the scope of successful exits. Management also gave a mid-term (FY28) guidance, expecting a NAV/share of € 41-48 (eNuW: € 45.95), implying a 4-9.7% CAGR.
FY25 EBITA from Fund Investment Services of € 14.3m came in at the upper end of the guidance (€ 10-15m), yet below last year's € 16.2m due to an increased number of FTE. Lower anticipated AUM/AUA are seen to trigger the guided EBITA decline to € 5-9m (eNuW: € 6.5m) as per the mechanics of private equity, the segment only recovers meaningfully once a new fund is launched. For FY28e, management hence expects EBITA of € 11-17m (eNuW: € 13.2m), likely contingent on the expected launch of DBAG Fund IX, a key catalyst.
Exit pipeline maturing. Management flagged several portfolio companies at a "high degree of maturity." The most likely candidates are older DBAG Fund VI holdings, the fund dates to 2013 and has effectively reached end-of-fund-life, creating LP pressure for capital distributions. In fact, DBAG announced the sale of Kraft & Bauer, a fire protection systems maker for machine tools held via DBAG Fund VII since 2018, to Syngroh Capital, marking DBAG's fifth transaction in six months. While concrete deal terms were not published, we expect the IRR within the company's return expectations, again underpinning the inherent robustness of the reported NAV.
The right portfolio as investor interest shifts. 30-40% of DBAG's portfolio comprises industrial technology, infrastructure, energy and environment, sectors that spent a decade in the shadow of high-growth software. That's changing: AI-driven uncertainty is pushing investors back toward cash-generative, asset-backed industrials, while Germany's € 500bn infrastructure fund adds a structural demand tailwind to precisely these sectors.
For DBAG, the timing is favourable. These holdings sit in older funds approaching end-of-life, meaning exit processes are imminent in order to facilitate the expected fundraising for a new fund. Recovering buyer appetite means carrying values can actually be realised, removing the key bear case that legacy book values were aspirational rather than achievable.
Buyback extended. At the end of February, DBAG extended its initial € 20m buyback program until the end of July. Upon the announced extension, some € 5.8m remained. At a ~35% discount to NAV, every euro of buyback is accretive to remaining shareholders. Combined with the €1.00/share proposed dividend, DBAG runs a compelling dual-return engine into 2026.
We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 39 PT based on SOTP (DCF for Fund Services + discount to our NAV per share estimate at year-end).
ISIN: DE000A1TNUT7
