Cereno Scientific - Inflection points coming into view

Cereno Scientific's FY25 results mark a strategically productive period, with multiple value inflection points coming into focus in FY26. With the Phase IIb start for lead asset CS1 expected in Q226, we anticipate a step-up in clinical activity and partnering momentum. We view CS014's pivot to PH-ILD from IPF as a rational move given the increasingly crowded IPF landscape and the more attractive, underpenetrated PH-ILD market, where treatment options remain limited. Importantly, CS014's anti-fibrotic and reverse-remodelling profile is well aligned with PH-ILD pathobiology and could offer meaningful differentiation, Recent regulatory clearance for a Phase I PK study, circumvents the need for additional safety and Phase IIa studies and expedites progression to Phase IIb, planned for Q127. Assuming full utilisation of the up to SEK665m November 2025 financing (SEK270m received to date), we forecast a cash runway into Q427, in line with guidance. Reflecting the revised CS014 strategy and updated net debt, our valuation moves to SEK21.3/share, from SEK21.1/share previously.

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