LAIQON's preliminary FY25 release came in below eNuW on H2 sales and EBITDA (see p.2). More importantly, however, the group continues to make progress in building a larger and more scalable platform, as reflected in the contribution from MainFirst and continued inflow momentum in Digital Wealth. Against that backdrop, the weak H2 EBITDA is less representative of the underlying earnings trajectory, given the material burden from one-off restructuring expenses.
H2 sales increased 28% yoy to € 20.7m, driven by the first-time contribution from MainFirst of c. € 5.8m (eNuW). On a FY pro-forma basis, revenues reached € 44.2m, up 43% yoy and thus broadly reflective of the c. 54% yoy AUM growth to € 10bn.
Profitability in H2 was affected by temporary burdens. EBITDA declined € 1.3m to € -2.1m, including c. € 2.5m of one-off expenses, mostly related to restructuring. The reported figure therefore appears to overstate the weakness of the underlying operating development. In our view, FY25 still reflects a transition year in which LAIQON invested into integration, platform expansion and organisational adjustments that should support the next phase of growth and scalability. Importantly, H2 25 adj. EBITDA turned positive at € 0.4m, marking the expected step-up. Including MainFirst on a pro-forma basis, FY EBITDA would have reached € 0.7m, compared with € -3.8m in 2024.
Encouragingly, momentum in client inflows appears intact. In Digital Wealth, monthly inflows have reached c. € 50m and continue to accelerate, supported by the stepwise rollout across cooperative banks. Of a relevant universe of c. 400 banks, c. 100 have already been connected. Of these, 59% are active, while 41% are still in onboarding or contracting, pointing to further significant activation and roll-out potential. This strong inflow run-rate is already reflected in white-label partnership AuMs, which have risen by 40% YTD, indicating healthy client demand and distribution traction. At the same time, this helps illustrate the building blocks of 2026e growth: of the expected € 19m sales increase, c. € 9m should come from the consolidation effect of MainFirst, c. € 3m from Digital Wealth and c. € 7m from growth in Asset Management (eNuW).
Meanwhile, the financing package should primarily be seen as a post-acquisition reset of the capital structure. At its core, the package is less about meaningful new funding and more about restructuring existing obligations: net new debt appears limited to c. € 2m (+5%), while only c. € 6.5m-10.1m of fresh equity (c. 7-11% of total) is set to come in via the cash capital increase. Another important part consists of debt/equity swaps and a reset of the maturity profile, helping to improve funding visibility and reduce near-term balance-sheet pressure. In our view, the measures should help LAIQON largely work through the financial legacy of its acquisition phase and leave the now integrated platform on a firmer footing for the next stage of monetisation.
In sum, the headline numbers were held back by temporary effects, while the more relevant strategic datapoints continue to support the investment case: a larger platform, ongoing inflows and further progress in white-label distribution.
BUY. Unchanged PT of € 9.10, based on DCF. While our revised estimates reflect the preliminary FY25 figures, they do not yet incorporate the dilutive effect of the announced capital measures, pending further detail.
ISIN: DE000A12UP29
