Yesterday, NFON published its FY25 annual report, confirming the preliminary figures released in February and providing additional colour on the AI transformation and FY26 outlook. In detail:
FY25 recap. Sales grew 2.0% to € 89.1m (thereof 92.1% recurring) while adj. EBITDA came in at € 12.6m (+2.4%, 14.2% margin). The only notable delta vs. the prelims was the ARPU, which reached € 10.01 (FY25p: € 9.91; FY24: € 9.89), crossing the important threshold of € 10. The ARPU uptick thus offset the 2.7% decline of the seat base to 647k, which was driven by lower order intake and prolonged sales cycles rather than inflated churn (stable at 0.5% p.m.).
Strong AI momentum. Since the launch of new AI features like NIA, NFON is making tangible progress in embedding AI across its platform, with triple-digit growth in intelligent assistant solutions and increasing ARPU driven by AI upsell. Early partner feedback and use case deployment suggest strong product-market fit, particularly in automation and customer engagement. However, monetization remains at an early stage and is not yet offsetting weakness in the core PBX business. Near-term visibility is therefore limited, with execution risk around scaling adoption and converting growing AI usage into sustained revenue contribution.
Macro continues to weigh operations. During the CC, management hinted that trading into 2026 remains subdued, with continued muted demand, elongated sales cycles and a cautious SME customer base delaying investment decisions. While Q4 showed some stabilisation in seat trends, this has not yet translated into a broader recovery, and visibility on new business remains limited. Hence, we expect underlying volumes to remain under pressure at least throughout H1 (eNuW: +0.9% sales), with growth primarily driven by pricing, mix and early AI related upsell, rather than a genuine demand recovery.
Yet, despite current, mostly macro related, headwinds we continue to see the underlying case as intact. NFON is transitioning from a volume-driven PBX provider to a value-driven AI communications platform, with early signs of success reflected in rising ARPU and strong growth in new solution areas. While execution risks around scaling AI monetisation remain, the combination of a highly recurring revenue base, disciplined cost control and increasing partner leverage provides a solid foundation for dynamic top-line development and further margin expansion in the mid-term.
Against this backdrop, current valuation levels appear undemanding as shares are trading at a mere 5.3x FY26e EV/adj. EBITDA. Reiterate BUY with a new PT of € 8.30 (old: € 8.70) based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000A0N4N52
