Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

19.06.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name:	tonies SE
ISIN:	LU2333563281
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 18.5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

CMD unboxes a global success story; PT UP

tonies held its first-ever Capital Markets Day, announcing an upbeat mid-term margin and growth guidance, an exclusive content deal as well as a new Toniebox. Here are the key takeaways:

• Sales to double by FY30e. Management guided for group sales of more than € 1.4bn by FY30e (vs FY25 sales of € 630m), largely in line with our estimates. Growth is to be driven by new market entries, new product launches and a rising household penetration in the US. Worth highlighting, the current installed base of Tonieboxes already provides visibility into € 1-1.5bn content-driven sales during the next few years. One Toniebox sale yields c. 20 figurine sales over 4.5 years in a subscription-like manner.
• US still early despite near-complete distribution. US household penetration stands at just 12%, against 58% in DACH, even though tonies already sits across all relevant retail partners such Amazon, Walmart and Target, which represent ~85% of the US pre-school market. Mind you, within five years, tonies become #2 pre-school toy in the US.
• Additional market launches pending. At least two new market launches are targeted by year-end FY27, with coverage of all major global regions by FY30. With a toolkit of successful blueprints (e.g. Australia) as well an already large global installed base (activated boxes in 100+ countries), we regard the chances of success as high.
• New Toniebox. tonies announced to be launching a "Toniebox lite" in the second half of the year. With additional details expected in August, the smaller and lighter alternative to TB2 is aimed at expanding the TAM via a lower entry point, secondary-location/travel use cases, and multi-device ownership within existing households.
• Margin to exceed expectations. By FY30e, tonies guides for 16-18% adj. EBITDA margin vs 8.6% in FY25 (eNuW old: ~13%). This reflects the natural evolution toward higher-margin attach revenue as the installed base increases alongside improved operating leverage stemming from structural improvements across cost of goods, fulfillment, and the broader cost base incl. SG&A.
• Content moat widens further. Tonies announced a collaboration with BBC, bringing Bluey to the Toniebox. For the past two consecutive years, Bluey has been the most streamed show in the US (not just within the pre-school category). Alongside the already-secured Pokémon exclusive and the in-house Tonies Studio content engine (e.g. the new 'Sleepy Friends' partnership with Carlsen), the group is expanding its content, now covering nearly all relevant IPs.

Our take: The CMD confirms our tonies thesis. A category-defining ecosystem with subscription-like repurchase behaviour, still-low US penetration despite near-complete distribution, and a content engine licensors now chase. By FY30e, the company will have transformed into a global icon with particularly strong cash generation thanks to its capex-light set-up.

BUY with an increased € 18.5 PT (old: € 14.5) based on DCF as we raise our mid- to long-term margin estimates by an average of 4pp. Terminal EBIT margin is raised from 11% to 15%.

You can download the research here: tonies-se-2026-06-19-update-en-1f000
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [e-mail]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2349504 19.06.2026 CET/CEST