CANBERA (dpa-AFX) - The U.S. weather forecasting agency has declared the advent of El Niño, and NASA says the natural, recurring phenomenon is bringing wetter conditions to the U.S. Southwest and drought to countries in the western Pacific, such as Indonesia and Australia.
El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-normal water temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific, made its return earlier this month. Observations of sea surface height from NASA's Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite indicated that the 2026 event was continuing to strengthen.
NOAA declared an El Niño on June 11, after sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific measured at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for several consecutive months.
Meanwhile, NASA scientists have been observing a complementary sign of El Niño: areas of elevated sea surface height. When ocean water warms, it expands in volume and causes the sea surface to rise - making the water's height a reliable indicator of ocean temperatures. Warmer-than-normal temperatures, hence higher sea surface heights, in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are associated with El Niño.
According to JPL sea level researcher Severine Fournier, deputy project scientist for Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, conditions in the western Pacific on June 8 looked similar to those from the same time in 1997, a year when an exceptionally strong El Niño emerged. Warm conditions in the eastern Pacific in 2026 have lagged behind, however, with fewer Kelvin waves built up by the same date.
Still, more warm Kelvin waves appeared to be approaching the eastern Pacific, meaning El Niño was still strengthening. Whether it catches up to 1997 depends on ocean activity in the coming weeks. 'For now, it looks like it's going to be a big one-more so than I would have said last week-but we still need more observations to know what's going to happen,' Fournier says.
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