WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Crime rates in large American cities continued to fall in the first half of 2026, with homicides down 18 percent from the same period in 2025 and 51 percent since the most recent peak in 2022, likely pushing the national homicide rate to a new historic low, according to an analysis released by the Council on Criminal Justice.
The study by the American think tank examined patterns for 13 crime types in 36 cities that have consistently and rapidly published monthly data over the past nine years.
It found that reported levels of 9 of 13 offenses were lower in the first half of 2026 than in the first half of 2025, with reported carjacking incidents seeing the largest drop (-47 percent) and drug offenses seeing the largest rise (+12 percent). Reported incidents of domestic violence rose by 8 percent.
Looking at trends over a longer period, only shoplifting remained elevated compared to levels in the first half of 2019, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide social justice protests of 2020.
The reported rates of four offenses have dropped by 50 percent or more from their peaks over the past nine years: homicide (51 percent lower in the first half of 2026 than the first half of 2022), carjacking (-73 percent vs. 2023), residential burglary (-56 percent vs. 2018), and motor vehicle theft (-51 percent vs. 2023).
Lethality - the share of serious violent crime that is fatal - fell 23 percent from the first half of 2025 and 20 percent from the first half of 2019 among 17 cities with sufficient data.
CCJ's Year-End 2025 report estimated that the national homicide rate in 2025 would likely drop to about 4 per 100,000 residents. If confirmed by nationwide FBI data expected later this year, that would be the lowest level recorded in law enforcement or public health data since at least 1900. Trends through the first half of 2026 show that the decline, which began in the second half of 2022, has continued, suggesting that the 2026 homicide rate will reach another historic low.
'This report is not evidence of the success or failure of any policy or practice,' wrote the co-authors, CCJ Senior Research Specialist Ernesto Lopez and Bobby Boxerman. 'It simply documents recent crime trends from a sample of large U.S. cities.'
However, the White House attributed it to last year's extraordinary progress and the Trump administration delivering on one of President Donald Trump's core promises to restore law and order.
'Americans see the results every day: safer neighborhoods, fewer victims, and the decisive end of the crime surge that scarred the last decade. This is not accidental; it is the direct result of the Trump Administration's relentless efforts to enforce the rule of law, back the police, and surge resources into communities long abandoned by Democrats,' it said in a press release, reporoducing the highlights of the CCJ mid-year report.
The White House claimed that the steepest homicide drops have come in cities where the Trump Administration stepped in after Democrat leaders failed to act.
In Memphis, murders are down more than 43 percent so far this year - after the city recorded fewer than 200 murders last year for the first time since 2019, according to it.
In Washington, D.C., murders are down more than 42 percent so far this year - following a 60 percent plunge in murders last year.
In New Orleans, murders are down more than 32 percent so far this year - after the city's homicide rate fell last year to its lowest in nearly 50 years.
In Los Angeles, murders are down more than 18 percent so far this year - after the city saw a nearly 20 percent drop last year.
To examine the plausibility of multiple factors potentially driving the homicide decline, CCJ said that it will convene a two-day summit in September with dozens of researchers from criminology, economics, psychology, sociology, public health, and related disciplines.
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