Topic: MLP will publish Q1 results on 15th May, which should show a solid start into the year. In detail:
Total sales are seen to grow by 8% yoy to € 307m, which should be driven by an expected rebound in real estate (sales from RE Brokerage: € 14m, up 358% yoy) and accompanied by a sales growth from Loans and Mortgages. Furthermore, we expect Non-Life Insurance brokerage to pick up momentum again and grow by 8% yoy to € 105m sales, based on the strong growth of MLP's insurance portfolio volume (FY'24: € 751m, +9% yoy). On the other hand, sales from Wealth Management should show less momentum (eNuW: € 90m sales, +4% yoy), weakened by the volatile capital market dynamics visible in Q1 but supported by a higher AuM base of € 62.5bn (eNuW; +5% yoy; -1% qoq). Unsurprisingly, we expect Interest Income to decline by 9% yoy to € 20m sales, due to recent ECB rate cuts, however still at comfortable levels.
EBIT is expected to grow by 13% yoy to € 42m (13.6% margin, up 0.6pp yoy), mainly due to the slight change in revenue and thus cost mix. First, Deutschland.Immobilien (with a negative € 4.2m EBIT in Q1'24), is now expected break even (eNuW: € 0m EBIT), as MLP should have reduced RE development significantly and incurred less sales and also much lower development costs. Secondly, thelower interest rate environment should have a slight effect on MLP Banking AG's still solid EBIT margin (eNuW: 23.2%, down 2.2pp yoy). Here MLP has also reduced the interest rate paid to customer on overnight (1% p.a vs. prev.1.5%) and time deposits (1.75% p.a. vs. prev. 2.75%), which should protect the net interest margin. Thirdly, FERI should report only minor performance fees of € 1m (eNuW; vs. € 3.8m in Q1'24) which should have also left a mark on profitability, with an expected EBIT margin of 11.1% (down 1.8pp yoy). However, by excluding the performance fees, underlying profitability (EBIT margin ex performance fees) at FERI should have risen by 0.9pp yoy to 10.2%, thanks to a higher AuM base and thus economies of scale and operating leverage. Finally, Industrial Brokerage should report a 7% higher EBIT of € 10m (55.6% margin, +0.2pp yoy), on the back of better cross selling within the MLP group.
MLP's diversified business model should once again prove, that MLP is able to show stable growth and sound margins. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and confirm MLP's position in our NuWays Alpha List with an unchanged PT of € 13.00, based on SOTP and FCFY'25e.
ISIN: DE0006569908
