SIGA Technologies - Another strong period for the order book

Q125 marked another active period for SIGA's order book, with BARDA exercising the final $26m intravenous (IV) TPOXX option in March, expected to be delivered in 2026, consistent with our estimates. Product revenues were $5.8m, driven by international TPOXX deliveries, which we believe may be related to the outstanding $6.7m contract with the Canada Department of National Defence (CDND). Importantly, sales momentum continued into Q2, with $62m in oral and IV TPOXX deliveries in April, substantially servicing the $94m order book at end-Q125. Liquidity remains strong, with net cash of $162.3m at end-Q125 enabling a $0.6/share dividend announcement in April (an attractive payout ratio of 72% and yield of 10.6%). We make modest revisions to our estimates, with our valuation upgrading slightly to $14.78/share with the model roll-forward ($14.41/share previously).

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