Original-Research: OHB SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE
Space coverage relaunched; re-initiate OHB with BUY With no further information on the intended delisting, it appears that OHB has chosen to remain a listed company for the time being. Therefore, we relaunch our active coverage with this in-depth report. Since our last update in August 2024, dynamics improved materially at OHB and in the space sector: Germany's newly unveiled € 35bn space defence budget (FY'26-30) positions OHB as a key national champion poised to benefit from the defence super-cycle. Assuming a 20% budget share (eNuW), OHB should secure € 7bn in orders, indicating a fundamental revenue shift (defence currently only accounts for 10% of sales). Importantly, OHB's order intake and backlog have already reached record levels thanks to prospering civil demand, e.g. from the ESA flagship mission LISA awarded to OHB in Q2'25 (order size: € 839m). In this oligopolistic market, OHB is Europe's #3 space OEM and only listed space-tech pure play. A planned merger between the #1 and #2 prompted by weakness, in our view (also see p. 7) changes the competitive landscape with OHB being the likely beneficiary. To further capitalize on their strong positioning, OHB acquired the remaining 30% of MT Aerospace (c.12% of group output) and has expanded vertically and geographically, taking over TechniSat's Saxony facility to internalize satellite electronics production, and entering the UK as Europe's fourth largest space market to capture geo-return opportunities. At the same time, OHB generates solid FCFs (although fluctuating due to the nature of the project business) and has ROCEs well above capital costs, underscoring the value-accretive nature of its business model. In addition, EBIT margins look set to expand to 10.5% by 2030e (+3.5pp vs adj. 2025e level, eNuW), following a comprehensive efficiency programme, which already shows a tangible impact (see p. 12) and thanks to operating leverage. Consequently, EBIT is seen to grow at a 24% CAGR into 2030e (eNuW). The story is not short of catalysts: the ESA Ministerial Council (Nov 2025) is expected to set the European civil space budget at € 20-23bn (eNuW, 18-30% over 2022), with a fundamental paradigm shift towards dual-use capabilities. Moreover, we expect the German-French JEWEL/Odin's Eye II missile early-warning programme to be awarded to OHB as prime contractor (eNuW: € 1-2bn volume), where the company has already completed the feasibility and pre-development studies. In sum, OHB is evolving from a predominantly civil space player into a strategic asset for Europe's space defence. Supported by record backlog, vertical and geographic expansion, and favourable market dynamics, the company is entering a decade of above-average growth. Against this backdrop, we re-initiate with BUY. Our PT of € 141 reflects a 40% upside and is based on DCF. Also a peer group analysis indicates a 30% discount on 2027e EV/EBIT. You can download the research here: ohb-se-2025-11-10-fullnoteinitiation-en-fc6b8_nd For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
2226586 10.11.2025 CET/CEST
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