Yesterday, OHB released a strong set of Q3 results and a further rising order book amid a upcoming phase of strong newsflow. In detail:
Q3'25 order intake reached € 350m, implying a solid 1.2x book-to-bill ratio. In light of large order wins in H1'25 (€ 1,249m) as well as in Q4'24 (€ 584m), the LTM book-to-bill ratio remains high at 1.9x. Consequently, the order backlog reached a new all time high at € 3,117m (+47% yoy), indicating improving visibility and OHB gaining traction even before any big-ticket defence orders.
Total output grew by 22% yoy in Q3 to € 300m (9M: +21% yoy to € 864m) driven by growth across all segments. The largest segment SPACE SYSTEMS grew by 30% yoy to € 233m (9M: +18% yoy to € 672m) driven by good progress on navigation satellites (+55% yoy) as well as environmental & weather satellites (+34% yoy). The renamed segment ACCESS TO SPACE (prev. AEROSPACE) also showed excellent growth of 40% yoy to € 43m (9M: +22% to € 114m), followed by the segment DIGITAL growing by +34% yoy to € 36m (9M: +31% yoy to € 103m). Holding and consolidation effects explain the remainder.
Q3 adj. EBITDA arrived 10% yoy higher at € 35m (10.1% margin, -1.3pp yoy), due to two main drivers:
OHB maintained a strong momentum in personnel efficiency, as total output (ex other op. inc.) per FTE continued to improve (Q3: 15% yoy; 9M: 14% yoy), as the 22% yoy output growth was delivered with an only 6% yoy higher headcount and likely a direct result of the ongoing efficiency program. Consequently, personnel expense rose by only 9% yoy to € 83m in Q3 (28% of output; -3.2pp yoy).
On the other hand, a disproportionate 32% yoy increase in material expenses to € 163m (54% of output, +4.1pp yoy) weighed on margins. We attribute this to a temporarily higher share of third-party services (eNuW: mostly pass-through revenues from sub-contractors), which naturally come with lower margins and fluctuate throughout the year. This effect was more pronounced in the SPACE SYSTEMS segment, explaining the 8% decline in segment EBITDA.
With a 9M EBITDA of € 75.5m (+21% yoy, 8.7% margin), the FY'25 EBITDA margin guidance of ~9% (eNuW: 11%, including a € 37.5m provision reversal due to a resolved project interference; adjusted for this: 9.3%) should be well in reach, as it implies a Q4 margin of 9.2%.
Meanwhile, next to budget increases likely at ESA and announced by Germany's Ministry of Defence, the EU's 2028-34 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) could also see a doubling in space spending to € 40-60bn for 2028-34 vs. € 19bn in the current 2021-27 MFF.
Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of € 141, based on DCF.
ISIN: DE0005936124