WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Tesla (TSLA) has published analyst consensus figures indicating that vehicle deliveries in 2025 will fall short of expectations and remain well below the growth targets previously outlined by chief executive Elon Musk.
In a newly added 'consensus' section on its investor website, the company said analysts expect fourth-quarter 2025 deliveries of about 423,000 vehicles, representing a 16% decline from the same period in 2024. Full-year deliveries for 2025 are forecast at 1.64 million units, down from 1.79 million last year, before rising modestly to 1.75 million in 2026 and about 3 million by 2029.
These projections contrast sharply with Musk's comments to shareholders in November, when he said Tesla was targeting annual production of 4 million vehicles by the end of 2027. Bloomberg-compiled bank estimates are also more optimistic, putting fourth-quarter 2025 deliveries at around 441,000 vehicles.
Tesla's $1.4 trillion valuation continues to reflect investor confidence in Musk's ambitions around self-driving technology and robotics, even though the company's output remains a fraction of larger rivals such as Toyota. However, sales momentum weakened in 2024, partly due to a consumer backlash against Musk's political positioning. His high-profile support for Donald Trump, followed by the rollback of US electric vehicle subsidies and supportive regulations, has weighed on demand.
The analyst forecasts released by Tesla also fall well short of the production milestones that underpin Musk's recently approved $1 trillion compensation package, which is linked to delivering 20 million vehicles, with half required to carry active subscriptions for the company's full self-driving software.
On Wednesday, TSLA closed after hours at $449.59, or 0.03% lower on the NasdaqGS.
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