Multitude will report its Q4'25 preliminary results tomorrow. Here is what to expect:
Q4'25 interest income is expected to fall 7% yoy to €62.8m, driven by Consumer Banking, where interest income is projected to decline 14.7% yoy to €45.9m (eNuW). The decrease is explained by segment divestments realised in Q3'25 and by the lagged effects of a lower interest environment. As mentioned in our previous note, top line is likely to continue facing negative impacts through Q1'26, though a stable interest rate environment going forward should provide a solid base for an improvement in FY26e. In February, the ECB left its rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive time while projecting headline inflation at 1.9% for 2026, slightly down from 2.1% in 2025. A Reuters poll conducted on 9-12 February showed a strong consensus among economists, with 66 out of 74 expecting the deposit rate to stay at 2% at least through 2026.
CapitalBox is seen increasing 1% yoy to € 9m (eNuW). The segment is also impacted by the aforementioned prior rate cuts. Further, CapitalBox operates in a rather soft market, as Eurostat data show business registrations up +0.5% qoq versus +2.5% qoq for bankruptcy declarations, suggesting macro-driven volume pressure on top of the group's deliberate de-risking.
Wholesale Banking, piloted in 2023, has quickly evolved into a strong growth avenue, that is set to increase 60% yoy to €7.9m (eNuW), on the back of an already strong performance in 9M'25 (+63.5% yoy). Here, Multitude targets overlooked deals outside the expertise of traditional banks, serving customers with specific, tailor-made financing needs.
The net fee and commission income is seen at € 4m, up 14.3% sequentially and nearly doubled yoy. The partnership business is highly net profit margin accretive, thanks to its capital-light and scalable setup. Mind you, the partnership model beat our estimates every quarter in FY25, where significant upside is still seen for FY26e with +39.7% yoy expected.
On cost base, impairment losses are seen to continue on their long-term downward trend, declining 3.6% yoy to € 22m. Multitude's loan book quality has been steadily improving over the years, as impairment levels have gone down from 31.5% to 15.2% in a seven-year span, despite the loan book increasing from € 468m to € 880m in the same timeframe.
Net profit is seen at € 6.3m, reflecting a margin of 10% (eNuW). While this is a yoy decline from Q4'24 (€ 7.5m), it is acknowledged that the comparable quarter was very strong thanks to a more favorable interest rate environment. The Q4'25 results should nevertheless position Multitude to overachieve its full year net income guidance of € 24-26m, at € 26.5m. Dividends of €0.31 per share are expected (vs. €0.44 last year incl. a €0.20 extraordinary component).
We do not make any changes ahead of the results and keep our BUY rating with a PT of € 11, based on our residual income model.
ISIN: CH1398992755
