Yesterday, 123fahrschule released a strong set of H1 figures, which were in line with the prelims published on 13 August (click here for update). In detail:
H1'25 sales increased 16.9% yoy to € 12.9m, mainly driven by the private customer segment as well as the newly consolidated simulator segment. Private customer sales increased 20.3% yoy to € 10.1m on the back of a 30% increase in net registrations as well as price increases. Moreover, the branch network grew to 61 locations (H1'24: 56), thus explaining the sharp sales increase in part as well. Following the acquisition of Foerst GmbH in FY24, the simulator segment initially contributed € 0.7m sales, which was predominantly stemming from truck simulators as car simulator demand slowed due to the pending legislation. Yet, once we see clarity in this regard, we expect catch-up effects to materialize, accelerating segment growth further. Sales in professional driver training however decreased to € 0.8m (-13.4% yoy) due to lower demand related to project delays and fewer funded training measures. The same held true for the driving instructor training segment, where sales declined 27.5% to € 1.2, which came however against a tough comparable base and capacity adjustments in light of the organizational fine-tuning.
Against this backdrop, H1'25 EBITDA doubled yoy to € 1.0m (H1'25 reported vs H1'24 adj. EBITDA), clearly displaying the scalability of the business model visible in a rising capacity utilization as well as continuous digitization and process automation. The H1 EBITDA margin strongly improved to 7.6%, +5.5pp yoy.
On this basis, management confirmed the positive outlook for FY25, targeting sales of € 28-30m (eNuW: € 28.7m) and EBITDA of € 1.5-2.5m (eNuW: € 2.5m). While the upper end of the EBITDA guidance looks well in reach, the top-line guidance appears ambitious (32% implied H2 sales growth at low end) but achievable, in our view. Mind you, that the newly opened branches were still largely in the ramp-up stage during H1, which is why we regard a further growth acceleration in H2 as feasible, especially in combination with the potential catch-up effect in the car simulator business.
Overall, in light of the strong release, the upcoming legislation changes, the ongoing and successful branch expansion as well as the scalable digital platform we regard 123fahrschule well on track for sustained and profitable growth.
We thus maintain our conviction in the case and confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 7.90 PT based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000A2P4HL9
