Jackpot situation does not allow for a Q4 peak jackpot. With the EJ currently at € 22m (peak: € 120m, c. 10 more draws needed) and the Lotto 6/49 at € 31m (peak: € 50m, c. 5-8 more draws needed), neither the EJ nor Lotto 6/49 are able to reach a peak jackpot this year. Therefore, we adjust our Q4 estimates accordingly:
Q4 sales estimate slightly lowered. Peak jackpots are the key driver of incremental user activity at ZEAL, which can be observed in higher number of monthly active users (MAUs). During Q3'25 (2x peak jackpot), the MAUs jumped 26% yoy to 1.69m (vs. 1.3m in Q3'24 with 0x peak jackpots). Now, with 0x peak jackpots in Q4'25e, we expect a sequential decline in user activity to 1.505m MAUs (implied average of 1.56m for FY'25e). Previously, we had expected a slightly higher activity rate of ZEAL's customer base (eNuW old: 1.565m), which is why we lower our Q4 sales estimate to € 53m (eNuW old: € 55m) which nonetheless still implies a guidance reach at the top-end at € 215m (eNuW).
Much less Q4 marketing spending now expected. With no peak jackpots in Q4, we also expect ZEAL to adjust Q4 marketing spending accordingly by 5m to € 15m (eNuW old: € 20m) which should yield a 33.5% Q4 EBITDA margin, in line with 9M of 33.3%.
Against this backdrop, an EBITDA guidance beat seems likely now. With a Q4 EBITDA estimate of € 18m, we imply a FY'25e EBITDA of € 72m (eNuW old: € 68m), which is 6% above the upper guidance end.
No more margin downside, only upside from jackpots. In the past, there was always a trade-off between profitability and growth, especially during peak jackpot phases. Now, with MAUs well above the 1.5m mark, ZEAL has reached critical mass and enough operating leverage, that the higher sales from the strong user activity overcompensate any additional marketing spending. Effectively, strong jackpot phases do not weigh on margins anymore, but actually increase profitability. This was already observed in the thus far unmachted Q4'24, where user activity skyrocketed and the EBITDA margin jumped to 40% (vs. c. 30% on average per quarter), despite a 275% yoy increase in marketing spending.
Against this backdrop, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a slightly higher PT of € 67.00 (old € 66.00), based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241