Aiforia will report H2'25 results on March 6. Our preview in detail:
H2'25 sales look set to increase 47% yoy to € 2.18m (eNuW). Clinical revenue growth is seen to accelerate sequentially (+70% vs +60% yoy in H1'25, eNuW) and Research revenue is set to recover to +6% yoy (eNuW), following a soft H1'25 (-30% yoy).
Focus is on the clinical segment to scale the business, explaining the modest growth expectations for Research in H2'25 (eNuW). The growth trajectories of both segments should also differ beyond FY25, with the Research segment to grow at an ~8% CAGR and the Clinical segment at a strong ~84% (FY26-28, eNuW). Clinical growth for the coming years should be supported by:
An increased share of wallet across the installed base of 14 major clinical clients, driven by an acceleration in the adoption rate of pathology AI technology;
Strategic partnerships with leading industry players, such as Siemens Healthineers, which should broaden Aiforia's commercial reach and help ramp up sales growth by embedding its AI solutions into large, established digital pathology networks; and
The recently launched foundation engine, which is viewed as an improvement over supervised convolutional neural networks in terms of commercial scalability, as it enables faster deployment of AI models, greater adaptability to new use cases, and lower operating costs.
We expect incremental tailwinds from the foundation engine to happen over the course of FY26-28. While an acceleration in the adoption pace of AI technology by clinical clients in H2'25 would provide a positive trigger for the growth story, we expect the more tangible hyperscale years to be in FY26-28. The company has an excellent track record in developing advanced AI models and in securing tenders, giving us confidence that Aiforia can convert clinical tenders into strong growth execution.
On profitability, H2'25 EBITDA is expected to improve to € -2.7m (vs € -4.0m a year prior), on the back of operational leverage and lower OPEX driven by a reduced headcount. Mind you, the company concluded workforce reductions in November, which should lead to annual cost savings of € 2.5m starting from FY26.
Aiforia is set to end FY25 with € 11.6m in cash. We estimate the company's operating cash burn to be € 9.3m in FY26, thus Aiforia should have sufficient cash runway to cover at least the whole of FY26.
Ahead of the H2'25 results, our conviction in Aiforia's long-term story remains intact. We reiterate our BUY rating with a € 3.80 PT based on our DCF model.
ISIN: FI4000507934
