Last Friday, Aiforia reported its H2'25 results. Our review in detail:
Net sales grew +45% yoy to € 2.1m (vs eNuW +47% yoy)
Clinical segment grew +68% yoy to € 1.5m (vs eNuW +70% yoy)
The clinical segment revenue growth was organic and accelerated sequentially from H1'25 (+60% yoy). The good performance of Clinical was primarily driven by an increased share of wallet of the installed base, as well as Clinical tender wins (+5 in 2025). Of the total revenue, 10% came from Finland (vs 40% prior), 17% from North America (vs 45% prior), and the remaining 73% mainly from Europe (vs 15% prior), reflecting the strong acceleration of share of wallet of European clinical customers (12 out of 14 clinical customers are located in Europe, excl. Finland).
On profitability, EBITDA was € -3.0m, improved from € -4.0m, (vs eNuW € -2.7m). The profitability amelioration was driven by (i) strong double digit growth generating operational leverage and (ii) lower personnel expenses. Mind you, the company concluded workforce reductions in November, which aims to reduce run-rate costs by € 2.5m, starting from FY26.
Aiforia ended the year with a cash position of € 9.5m (vs eNuW € 11.6m). The higher cash burn was due to higher than anticipated WC requirements and CAPEX. The business mix is shifting from research licensing deals to pay-per-use clinical contracts; a temporary uptick in WC is therefore expected, with WC investments normalising over time toward neutral to slightly positive. Further, investments into intangibles are seen to have peaked in FY25 (eNuW).
Looking forward, we expect the more tangible hyperscale years to be in FY26-28. As mentioned in our preview, revenue growth is seen to accelerate on the back of (i) an increased share of wallet, (ii) strategic partnerships (e.g. Siemens Healthineers), (iii) deployment of Foundation Engine-powered AI models and (iv) continued clinical tender wins. Noteworthy, the company's 14 clinical clients currently generate € ~2m run-rate recurring revenue, with scope for a 3-4x increase through share of wallet expansion, at incremental gross margins of ~75% and EBITDA margins of ~40% (eNuW). Aiforia aims to win 50 clinical clients by 2030, an achievable target given the company's past tender performance.
For FY26, we expect net sales to increase 70% yoy to € 6.0m. EBITDA is seen to improve from € -6.0m to € -3.1m.
We make minor adjustments to our model. Given the strong performance of the Clinical segment in H2'25, our conviction in the long-term story remains intact. We thus reiterate our BUY rating with a € 3.80 PT based on our DCF model.
ISIN: FI4000507934
